Program Details
The most recent example of disharmony in the usually unified Republican Party came in the latest dispute between Governor Jon Huntsman and Utah Lawmakers during the special session – But did it also expose some movement in Utah 's political culture? As moderates throughout the country are rethinking their loyalties are Utahns revising the values that influence their vote?
Enid Greene, talk show host on AM820 and former U.S. Representative, is our ediotorialist this week for Speak Out Utah. Read more about Enid.
View or Post CommentsStudio Guests include Quin Monson, BYU Political Science Professor; Mathew J. Burbank, U of U Political Science Professor; Dan Harrie, Politics and Government Editor for the Salt Lake Tribune; LaVarr Webb, Political Consultant and Desert New columnist; and Megan Holbrook, former head of the Utah Democratic Party.
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Dan Jones and Associates provides accurate and timely market research and public opinion polling in the state of Utah.
Utah Policy Daily is where political junkies get their daily fix. This website contains blogs, podcasts and political resources for every Utahn.
The Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy (CSED) at Brigham Young University is a strictly nonpartisan research center seeking to increase knowledge about the practice of democracy in the United States and in other countries.
Show Transcript
[Doug Fabrizio]:
While Republicans are famous for their party discipline - lately there have been issues that are straining that sense of solidarity. Here in Utah the dispute between Governor Huntsman and G-O-P lawmakers during the recent special legislative session revealed the disharmony between conservative and more moderate views and it raises some questions - how are Utah voters reacting to the disarray – are they revising the values that influence their vote – tonight on Utah NOW - after years of Republican dominance – is the ground beginning to shift.
[Fabrizio]:
Hello, and welcome to Utah NOW. I’m Doug Fabrizio. The factors that come into play when a person steps into the booth and casts a vote are – complicated. In Utah – for years – even if their affiliation with the Republican Party was tepid at best an overwhelming majority came to see Republican candidates as the kind of de facto choice. But why – for citizens – a vote is an expression of confidence or unease – about the economy - national security - or – and this one’s apparently a biggie - the social condition of the country – these are the moral issues that have been influencing Americans and Utahns for years. Most agree Republicans have been the best in recent history at cornering the market on values – but increasingly there are other issues vying for the attention of Americans – the progress of the war in Iraq, corruption in government, unbridled spending, illegal immigration. It’s not likely these issues will drastically transform Utah politics – but the pollster and political observer Dan Jones says the ground is beginning to move…
[Dan Jones, Ph.D., Co-owner, Dan Jones and Associates]:
I think this election of 2006 in November is going to be one of the most important elections we’ve had since I’ve been covering them in 1959. I think it’s going to give a great message not only to the people of the nation but to the people of the world of what direction our country wants to go in preparation for the presidential election of the year 2008, which will be an open seat.
[Fabrizio]:
Republicans in Utah have been able to portray a sense of unity despite their differences and there have been always been differences - between urban and rural Republicans, between moderate and conservative Republicans, but Dan Jones says of all the years he's been measuring Utah politics he's never seen such a gap in the party.
[Jones]:
When we talk ideologically, there is the real far right in the Republican Party, which will show up at your conventions and your caucuses and get their people elected. But then when you have the general election, many times moderate Republicans run against those individuals…or those who win, there becomes friction between the moderate Republicans and the very conservative Republicans. I think the factionalization is stronger right now than at any time that I can recall.
[Fabrizio]:
For more than two decades Utah's Democratic Party has been struggling to regain traction in the state’s political system. And in many ways Dan Jones says it's as much a test for them as it is for Republicans.
[Jones]:
This has been an opportunity for Democrats to unite, and if ever they’ve had a chance to make inroads on the Republicans…this is the year.
[Fabrizio]:
To really evaluate whether Utah’s political landscape is changing – you have to understand the behavior of the typical Utah voter – what it is that influences their choices in the voting booth - to help us figure that out – Quin Monson is joining us – he’s with the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at BYU...Quin welcome…
[Quin Monson, Ph.D., Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, BYU]:
Thanks for having me.
[Fabrizio]:
When a typical Utahn steps into the voting booth, what is it primarily that influences their vote?
[Monson]:
I think there's a lot of evidence among political activists that a voter's identification with one of the political parties, their psychological attachment which most political scientists say as a long‑term, fairly stable attachment. So if you identify with the Republican Party, you go into the voting booth, you're more likely to vote for those canned Republicans.
[Fabrizio]:
Are Utah voters any different from main stream American vote SNERS.
[Monson]:
I don't think so in that sense, except that the partisan division here is much more Republican than it is in the nation as a whole.
[Fabrizio]:
How influential are the moral questions? I mean when you look at that component of what it is that makes up party identification, how much do the moral questions play into that?
[Monson]:
That's a difficult question to answer in terms of how it's changed over time, especially because some of the most important changes at the national party level happened before we had a lot of good data. So for example, I think we could speculate that abortion and gay marriages more recently have had an effect. It's difficult to pin it down on abortion because we didn't start doing exit polling until 1982, and I think there's good evidence at the precinct level that, and the county level, that a lot of changes happened in the wake of the Roe versus Wade decision and how the parties began to define themselves at the national level on the abortion issue.
You see that occur in some of the Utah data in the '76 and '78 election and the relationship gets stronger and stronger after that in terms of the percent conservative, religious, especially active Mormon voters in a county, or in other jurisdiction and the percent that vote Republican.
[Fabrizio]:
So do you get a sense that they weigh, for example, pragmatic issues, issues of the economy, their PAC’s tax burden, for example, against the moral questions? And if they are weighing those which comes ahead?
[Monson]:
I think the moral questions tend to come ahead in part because I don't think there's a lot of differentiation that voters can make on the more pragmatic questions. In other words for the history of our state when we've had Democrats elected at the state wide level, Scott Matheson is the most recent example, they were fiscal conservatives. They were good managers; they did a good job on those sort of bread and butter issues. And so, and Republicans that have succeeded them have been pretty reasonable on those issues so what differentiates the two parties has often been these moral issues.
[Fabrizio]:
So do you think that Utahns, then, and I guess this may be the answer to the success of the party over time, is that Utahns make the connection that the Republican party is the party of moral correctness?
[Monson]:
I think that is the case for some voters, and that has evolved that way for some voters.
I think what you do see is a tendency within parties state wide for the voters to become more extreme ideologically. Within the Republican Party you have more self‑identified Republicans also identifying as more conservative over time, and the same within the Democratic Party, more self‑identified Democrats, identifying as more liberal over time. For example in our 1982 exit poll, 33 percent of voters who identified as strong Republicans, of those voters 33 percent were also strong conservatives. That shifted to 42 percent in 2002, and for strong Democrats, 8 percent said they were strong liberals, and that shifted to 20 percent saying they were strong liberals in 2002. So in both parties, they've become more extreme ideologically. It presents a challenge for both of them, the Republicans as the dominant majority party have skids within the party where the conservative element is not a priority yet, but they're larger and they started to assert themselves more and more over time, and you have the same thing happening within the Democratic Party, there's a more liberal element that asserts itself and makes it hard for the Democratic Party state wide to nominate moderate can't candidates that can compete with the Republicans.
[Fabrizio]:
But if it's the case the Republican Party tends to have more who are conservative. The liberal doesn't bode well in this state for the Democratic party.
[Monson]:
It makes it harder for them. I think I would agree with Dan Jones that there's an opportunity for the Democrats, but I'm not sure that they're ready to seize it because I don't know, there's this internal schism in the Democratic party where there's one group that wants to win and is willing to nominate a moderate candidate in order to do so and there's another group that wants to be right. And they don't want to compromise on some of those liberal principles, and so that crowd can elect someone as mayor of Salt Lake City but they are not going to elect that same person as governor of Utah or to a congressional seat.
[Fabrizio]:
Okay, Quin Monson thanks for joining us.
[Monson]:
Thank you.
[Fabrizio]:
So – what are you thinking about when you cast your vote – that’s the question in this week’s Vox Populi…
[Woman 1]:
What drives people to the polls is history within their family; I think family plays a very important part. I believe that a personal attachment to different causes, different issues, and when it's personal then people will make an effort.
[Woman 2]:
You want to vote because you want to make a difference. You care about this beautiful, free country that we have and you want to let your legislators that you elect know how you feel.
[Man 1]:
I think in terms of how the parties stand or consistently stand on such issues as the economy, taxation, the issues of the illegal aliens, that's become such an issue lately. I think that will drive people to vote.
[Man 2]:
You know what I think drives a lot of local politics, when the Democratic Party tends to do pretty well when the Democrats nationally do very well. When the Democrats nationally do so‑so, the Democrats here are just, it's status quo, they get wiped out. And so I think what you could see, I think there's enough of a sea change for potential on the national scene that you could see people in some way that's going to filter down to Utah.
[Man 3]:
As far as wholesale change, things change very slowly. So Salt Lake City won't be New York or Seattle any time soon.
[Fabrizio]:
Okay – here to apply a little party passion, some skepticism and a reality check or two to the prospect of change in Utah politics is… LaVarr Webb, political consultant and columnist for the Deseret Morning News – Dan Harrie is here – he’s the politics and government editor for the Salt Lake Tribune. Megan Holbrook was the head of Utah’s Democratic Party for six years... and Matthew Burbank – is an assistant professor of Political Science at the University of Utah – welcome all – and thanks for being here…
[Fabrizio]:
I want to start by asking to you respond to a quick glance at President Bush's approval ratings. If you look at them nationally they're in the like low 30's for example. In Utah they've dipped into the low 50's and I'm wondering what kind of significance you see in that. Is the ground beginning to soften? LaVarr Webb you first.
[LaVarr Webb, Political Consultant]:
Clearly Utah is following the national trend but we started much higher with President Bush and so we haven't dropped as low. But I do think it signifies problems particularly at the national level for the Republicans, but I don't see it making dramatic, a dramatic impact in this year's election.
[Fabrizio]:
What do you think, Meghan?
[Meghan Holbrook, Former Chair, Utah Democratic Party]:
Well, Bush has no place to go but down, even in Utah. I think people are paying attention to the enormous national debt, the price of gas, the immigration problem. But in a national back drop where there's a lot of unease and unrest, especially about economic problems, and war, Utah Democrats tend to do better.
[Fabrizio]:
Matthew Burbank?
[Matthew Burbank, Ph.D., Political Science Dept, U of U]:
Well certainly Bush's approval ratings overall are not where any of the Republicans would want them to be. They'd all like them to be higher, largely because he is still seen symbolically even though he's not going to be on the ballot as being leader of the party. So it doesn't help Republicans locally to have those low numbers but on the other hand the reality is most incumbents are going to be in good shape anyway.
[Fabrizio]:
Dan, does it really mean anything for Utah, those numbers?
[Dan Harrie, Politics and Government Editor, Salt Lake Tribune]:
You know I don't think it does. Especially when you start putting another name against that name, from the other side. Because really elections are about two choices not about one.
So I’m finding if you had those approval ratings with Democrat X from the national party, Bush would still do probably as well as he's done in the last two elections.
[Holbrook]:
But he's not on the ballot.
[Harrie]:
Right.
[Holbrook]:
And that makes a big change. Because then the old adage all politics is local is true. On the ballot is the top for the Democrats is Jim Matheson, Pete Ashdown against Senator Hatch, I think people forget that there's a senate race going on also.
[Fabrizio]:
But Matthew Burbank I want to ask you this. In a two‑party system if a voter is dissatisfied then they go to the other party, they consider the other party. But in Utah it doesn't really work that way.
[Burbank]:
Well, that's largely been true. There hasn't been all that much of a choice in part because of the struggles that Democrats have had to get credible candidates on the ballot. That's always a challenge for a party that's in such a minority. On the other hand the other option of course is not to vote at all, and that's the other concern is who's going to turn out and vote? And that's why, for example, Democrats are pleased with what's going on in the sense that there are a lot of things like the Iraq war, and gas prices and things that might drive Democrats out to vote and that's going to be seen as a good thing for Democrats.
[Fabrizio]:
I was asking Quin Monson about how the typical voter behaves when they go into a voting booth, how they make that choice. How do you see it? The rest of you?
[Webb]:
You know clearly the party affiliation is important, but we do have races between two people.
And I think the quality of the candidates, the positions of the candidates still make the biggest difference in a race, and in Utah, Salt Lake County will be very interesting to watch because Salt Lake County voters have shown that they're willing to vote for Democrats, the Democrats have two big state senate races that are open seats and that will be sort of a bell weather, those races, Karen Hale’s seat and Patrice Arent's seat how voters go on those will be a real bell weather for the state.
[Fabrizio]:
What do you think, Dan?
[Harrie]:
I think this election holds some promise for a few interesting races. To go back to the point about offering alternative votes, a lot of it is there are not a lot of well‑known Democrats in office in Utah, so how do people vote for people they don't know about? It really is sort of candidate X in many cases. It's the unknown factor.
[Fabrizio]:
But is it, if you're in Kaysville, or Layton, or a suburb south of Salt Lake, in Sandy,
[Holbrook]:
For example‑ ‑Cedar City or St. George.
[Fabrizio]:
When they get into the voting booth is it a de facto choice to go Republican if they're uncertain about both parties, for example?
[Holbrook]:
If you don't know it is. But Utah voters tend to vote down ballot and they will cross the aisle because they like someone. I think most people vote for people if they will have them in their living room. If they think that person reflects who they are and they're comfortable with them they'll vote for them. That's why I consider this year more of a local race, since President Bush is not on the ballot. It's very helpful. And Jim Matheson is a good example. I think he's done a very good job as a Democrat, but first as a Utahn and a representative of his district. And people vote for him over and over. You look at the district, it's a Republican district.
[Fabrizio]:
What do you think, Matthew Burbank?
[Burbank]:
I agree. That's a good example if you have a candidate like a Jim Matheson who really has developed himself strongly as not so much the party affiliation, in fact the first couple of elections he ran you hardly heard he was a Democrat. But certainly with that name, that name recognition, he was in a position where he could run largely on his own strength of name identification, and do well. And now that he's well established I think Republicans really are in a difficult circumstance, even though Meghan's right, it is a Republican district, it's hard to beat that incumbent because he's so well known and generally well liked.
[Fabrizio]:
But even if they do feel comfortable with the personality of a particular candidate, willing to maybe think about it, how much are these moral issues going to Trump those personality choices, for example? Questions about abortion, but I'm thinking particularly about gay marriage, which is going to be I think a particularly strong issue in the coming months.
[Webb]:
We will see a lot of Democratic, Democrats who are running who will be just as strong on those moral issues as the Republicans. I think the big problem for the Democrats is that there's an opportunity to really capitalize on what's happening nationally, but I think a lot of Utah voters may not be happy with what's happening with the Republicans, but they don't see any great alternatives, anything that anyone will do any better if they vote Democratic. So I think they will tend to stay with their own party.
[Fabrizio]:
How do you think about, Dan Harrie, whether or not the, you know, the moral questions versus the pragmatic questions? Do you think they're coming into line at all?
Are people thinking about moral questions versus‑ ‑ They're more inclined to think about pragmatic questions than knee‑jerk moral questions?
[Harrie]:
We've had a long period where the moral questions have been sort of the controlling factor in a lot of these elections. They're more visceral issues, they get people's emotions up and clearly that's the Republican play book. It's the Republican play book this year, it has been, you know, the last few elections. And I think it's too early to tell whether that play book is now obsolete. There are signs that people are starting in the aggregate, maybe not so much in Utah, but paying more attention to the practical, pragmatic issues. You want to talk about the war, you want to talk about gas prices, wages, those kinds of issues, I think, are starting to encroach on the territory that's been carved out by those moral issues.
[Holbrook]:
But LaVarr had a really good point. A lot of Democrats are exactly the same on the hot button moral issues.
[Webb]:
You look at Jim Matheson for example.
[Holbrook]:
Absolutely. And the majority of Utah Democrats are LDS, it's a misperception that they're not.
I mean we go to the same churches, schools, we shop at the same places. We do care about a few different things socially. But I don't think it's going to play as much. I think people are more worried about lunch box issues right now.
[Fabrizio]:
Do you think that's the case?
[Burbank]:
Well certainly the big issue right now is going to be gas prices. That's something that, that's one of the reasons I think that you saw, for example, President Bush's support within the state begin to decline as gas prices increased. That was something that people could look at, they were dissatisfied with, and again, it may not be the most rational thing to do in the world, but they, in essence say well things aren’t going well and I'm blaming the president for that. So that's a circumstance where if that's the attitude that voters have is they are thinking about their vote choices, that's beneficial to the Democrats because at least then they have the opportunity to say here's our alternative. But again, I think Dan was right, that you have to have an alternative. If you don't have some other plan, if you don't have some way to say here's why you should vote for me, it may all be for naught.
[Fabrizio]:
So it seems to me LaVarr Webb, that the onus is really on the Democrats to provide choices for voters.
[Webb]:
They have to provide a legitimate alternative that appeals to Utah voters, and to this point I don't think that has happened. We're still a long ways from the election, and lots of things can happen.
But to this point I think people will stick with the safe Republican vote that they've taken for a long time.
[Fabrizio]:
I wonder if what you think, Meghan, the strategy
[Holbrook]:
About LaVarr?
[Fabrizio]:
Do you want to react to that?
[Holbrook]:
A safe Republican vote and no alternatives, please. I mean‑ ‑
[Webb]:
Well what are they?
[Holbrook]:
Well first of all Pat Jones who's running for the senate and for Patrice Arent's old seat had a very good tax bill with a Republican that never even saw the light of day or got heard.
[Webb]:
Well because it taxed families more than the voters wanted to‑ ‑
[Holbrook]:
No it didn't it was a very pragmatic, practical approach that should have been debated. Look what's going on. We haven't rebracketed taxes, the flat tax has become the forgotten tax. There's a big problem. There are a lot of alternatives, people one, haven't paid attention, and two it's hard to get through the chattering.
[Fabrizio]:
What's the strategy that you recommend?
[Holbrook]:
I think to talk about local issues. Democrats talk about lunch pale issues. First of all Jim Matheson got everyone together about testing in Skull Valley, also the governor. But that was a uniting issue. The other issue of gas prices‑ ‑
[Webb]:
But they haven't broken through on communicating it very well except for perhaps Jim Matheson.
[Holbrook]:
Right, but that's very hard to do when there's an overwhelming
[Harrie]:
Doug, can I jump in? There are some sleeper issues out there too. We had recently a special session of the legislature where the legislature turned its back on a request for $2 million for dental care for elderly and blind and disabled people. And they at the same time approved $15 million for a parking garage. Now, I don't think a lot of times people pay a lot of attention to those social service type issues, but there was a recent poll out, KSL television commissioned that showed 61 percent of people thought the legislature should have provided that money, and I had a conversation with the fellow on our editorial board who handles letters to the editor he said he hasn't seen such a response from readers since the Main Street plaza issue several years ago. That's how much of a hot button that's become. So there are issues like that out there that could really inspire some anger, but in many cases the Republican Party is so dominant they don't really feel vulnerable on issues like that.
[Fabrizio]:
We'll have to leave it there. Thanks you all very much. In our “Speak Out Utah” section – former Utah congresswoman Enid Greene has a thought or two about the condition of American politics – and it has very little to do with the parties…
[Enid Greene]:
It was perhaps one of Washington’s worst-kept secrets that the Democratic Party planned to make this November’s elections a referendum on Republican corruption, with the disgraceful lobbyist Jack Abramoff and “ethically-challenged” former Rep. Duke Cunningham as warm-ups to their campaign against “liar-in-chief”’ George W. Bush.
Regrettably for the Democrats’ strategists, their plans have been thwarted by Senator Harry Reid’s (and Cynthia McKinney’s) love of boxing, and Congressman William Jefferson’s apparent fondness for cold, hard cash.
Here at home, political junkies try to read the tea leaves (de-caffeinated, of course) to see if the Republicans are arguing with each other enough to give the Democrats a chance to sneak past them and pick up more seats in the legislature.
Frankly, I think the “chattering class” of politicians and pundits focuses far too much attention on the parties, and not enough on ideas and principles and their real-world impact.
That may sound odd coming from the vice-chairman of the Utah Republican Party. But political parties are not themselves supposed to be the purpose of politics. They are simply vehicles—shorthand, if you will-- for expressing a philosophy of governance. For example, I don’t believe in less centralized government because I’m a Republican. I’m a Republican because I believe in local control wherever possible. The principle leads to the party affiliation, not the other way around.
So instead of arguing about which party has cornered the market on public integrity, or talking about seat pick-ups and losses like politics is just a big game of rec league basketball, let’s focus on ideas and philosophies and real-world solutions, and then vote for the candidates that best reflect our individual views and values.
I’m Enid Greene. Thanks for listening.
[Fabrizio]:
That’s Utah NOW for this evening. Thanks for joining us …. Remember you can join the conversation with an e-mail… send us your thoughts to UtahNOW@kued.org In the meantime - we’ll be back next Friday with another edition of Utah NOW…until then, I’m Doug Fabrizio.
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